{"id":494,"date":"2018-08-01T13:28:56","date_gmt":"2018-08-01T13:28:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gulfcoastreadiness.com\/?p=494"},"modified":"2018-08-01T13:28:56","modified_gmt":"2018-08-01T13:28:56","slug":"forecasters-predict-a-near-or-above-normal-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gulfcoastreadiness.com\/forecasters-predict-a-near-or-above-normal-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasters predict a near- or above-normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"date-published\">May 24, 2018<\/span>NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 75-percent chance that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will be near- or above-normal.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Forecasters predict a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season for the upcoming hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\u201cWith the advances made in hardware and computing over the course of the last year, the ability of NOAA scientists to both predict the path of storms and warn Americans who may find themselves in harm\u2019s way is unprecedented,\u201d said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. \u201cThe devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts.\u201d<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">NOAA\u2019s forecasters predict a 70-percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which\u00a05 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1\u00a0to 4\u00a0major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6\u00a0become hurricanes, including 3\u00a0major hurricanes.<\/p>\n<div class=\"dnd-atom-wrapper type-image context-full\" contenteditable=\"false\">\n<div class=\"dnd-drop-wrapper\"><img loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms. (NOAA)\" src=\"http:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/thumbnails\/image\/2018%20Hurricane%20numbers%20-%20FINAL%20as%20of%20052118%20-700x430.png\" alt=\"Hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms.\" width=\"700\" height=\"434\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"dnd-legend-wrapper\" contenteditable=\"false\">\n<div class=\"caption\">Hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms. (NOAA)<\/div>\n<div class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/image_download\/8189?itok=ktP4OswH\" download=\"\">Download Image<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The possibility of a weak El Nino developing, along with near-average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, are two of the factors driving this outlook. These factors are set upon a backdrop of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development and have been producing stronger Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\u201cNOAA\u2019s observational and modeling enhancements for the 2018 season put us on the path to deliver the world\u2019s best regional and global weather models,\u201d said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction. \u201cThese upgrades are key to improving hurricane track and intensity forecasts, allowing NOAA to deliver the best science and service to the nation.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"dnd-atom-wrapper type-video context-full\" contenteditable=\"false\">\n<div class=\"dnd-drop-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"iframe_container a16_9\"><iframe title=\"VIDEO - 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook\" src=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/AdjrB5Qnq6U\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<div class=\"field field-name-field-subtitle field-type-text-long field-label-hidden\">\n<div class=\"field-items\">\n<div class=\"field-item even\">Dr. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center, gives a summary of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season outlook.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"dnd-legend-wrapper\" contenteditable=\"false\">\n<div class=\"caption\">Dr. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center, gives a summary of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. (NOAA)<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">NOAA\u2019s suite of sophisticated technologies \u2013 from next-generation models and satellite data to new and improved forecast and graphical products \u2013 enable decision makers and the general public to take action before, during, and after hurricanes, helping to build a more \u201cWeather-Ready Nation.\u201d New tools available this year to assist in hurricane forecasts and communications include:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">NOAA\u2019s fleet of earth-observing satellites is more robust than ever with the successful\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/media-release\/noaa-s-goes-s-satellite-roars-into-orbit\">launch of the GOES-17 satellite<\/a>\u00a0in March. This satellite, along with the GOES-16 satellite \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/media-release\/noaa-s-goes-16-now-at-goes-east-ready-to-improve-forecasts-even-more\">now GOES-East<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 contribute to a comprehensive picture of weather throughout the Western Hemisphere, allowing forecasters to observe storms as they develop.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The new polar-orbiting satellite,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/media-release\/lift-off-jpss-1-heads-to-orbit\">NOAA-20<\/a>, will join the NOAA\/NASA Suomi NPP satellite and use a suite of sophisticated instruments to gather high-resolution data from around the globe to feed NOAA\u2019s weather models, driving the 3-7 day weather forecast that is critical to preparedness and effective evacuations.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The National Weather Service will run a version of the Global Forecast System (called FV3 GFS) with a new dynamic core alongside the current GFS model \u2013 often referred to as the American model \u2013 during the 2018 season. This will mark the first dynamic core upgrade to NOAA&#8217;s flagship weather model in more than 35 years, representing the first step in re-engineering NOAA\u2019s models to provide the best possible science-based predictions for the nation.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">NOAA\u2019s hurricane-specific model \u2013 the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov\/gc_wmb\/vxt\/HWRF\/index.php\">Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 will be upgraded to offer greater resolution than ever before, increasing model resolution from 1.2 miles to 0.9 miles (2 km to 1.5 km) near the center of a storm. Additionally, the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov\/gc_wmb\/vxt\/HMON\/index.php\">Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean coupled Non-hydrostatic model<\/a>\u00a0was first implemented in 2017 and will undergo upgrades for the 2018 season to include greater resolution, new physics and coupling with ocean models.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">NOAA\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/hurricanes.gov\/\">National Hurricane Center<\/a>\u00a0will make the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/news\/NHC_new_products_and_services_2018_FINAL.pdf\">Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds graphics<\/a>\u00a0operational for this hurricane season. One graphic displays the \u201cearliest reasonable\u201d arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds, at which point further preparedness activities could be hindered. A second graphic displays the \u201cmost-likely\u201d arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"dnd-atom-wrapper type-image context-full\" contenteditable=\"false\">\n<div class=\"dnd-drop-wrapper\"><img loading=\"lazy\" title=\"2018 Atlantic tropical cyclone names.  (NOAA)\" src=\"http:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/thumbnails\/image\/2018%20Hurricane%20names%20-%20FINAL%20as%20of%20052118%20-%20700x430.png\" alt=\"2018 Atlantic tropical cyclone names. \" width=\"700\" height=\"434\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"dnd-legend-wrapper\" contenteditable=\"false\">\n<div class=\"caption\">2018 Atlantic tropical cyclone names. (NOAA)<\/div>\n<div class=\"link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/image_download\/8193?itok=LiOT63aH\" download=\"\">Download Image<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&#8220;Preparing ahead of a disaster is the responsibility of all levels of government, the private sector and the public,&#8221; said acting FEMA Deputy Administrator Daniel Kaniewski. &#8220;It only takes one storm to devastate a community so now is the time to prepare. Do you have adequate insurance, including flood insurance? Does your family have a communication and evacuation plan? Stay tuned to your local news and download the FEMA app to get alerts, and make sure you heed any warnings issued by local officials.\u201d<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">In addition to the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/outlooks\/hurricane.shtml\">Atlantic hurricane season outlook<\/a>, NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern and central Pacific basins. An 80 percent chance of a near- or above-normal season is predicted for both the eastern and central Pacific regions. The eastern Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 14 to 20 named storms, of which 7 to 12 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3 to 7 major hurricanes.\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/media-release\/noaa-predicts-near-or-above-normal-2018-hurricane-season-in-central-pacific\">The central Pacific outlook<\/a>\u00a0calls for a 70-percent probability of 3 to 6 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">NOAA will update the 2018 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>May 24, 2018NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 75-percent chance that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will be near- or above-normal. Forecasters predict a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season for the upcoming hurricane season, which<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"btn-filled btn\" href=\"https:\/\/gulfcoastreadiness.com\/forecasters-predict-a-near-or-above-normal-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season\/\" title=\"Forecasters predict a near- or above-normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season\">Read More<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":495,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gulfcoastreadiness.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/494"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gulfcoastreadiness.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gulfcoastreadiness.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gulfcoastreadiness.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gulfcoastreadiness.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=494"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/gulfcoastreadiness.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/494\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":496,"href":"https:\/\/gulfcoastreadiness.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/494\/revisions\/496"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gulfcoastreadiness.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/495"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gulfcoastreadiness.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gulfcoastreadiness.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gulfcoastreadiness.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}